نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی Released under (CC BY-NC 4.0) license I Open Access I
نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه مدیریت ورزشی و رفتار حرکتی، دانشکدۀ علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت ورزشی و رفتار حرکتی، دانشکدۀ علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
3 استادیار، گروه مدیریت ورزشی و رفتار حرکتی، دانشکدۀ علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
To what extent is the future of cultural behavior of football fans in Iranian stadiums shaped by the interplay between religious‑national identity, protest culture, and ethnic identities? Although Iranian stadiums have become arenas for the reproduction of multiple identities and social protests, most previous studies have been cross‑sectional and lack systematic futures perspectives. Therefore, the present study employed a mixed‑methods approach based on Schwartz’s scenario planning model to explore the future of fan cultural behavior in Iran’s Premier League and to develop plausible scenarios. Semi‑structured interviews with 15 experts (club managers, ultra leaders, journalists, and academics) were coded using MAXQDA. Subsequently, cross‑impact matrix (10×10) and uncertainty questionnaires were analyzed through MICMAC structural analysis. Among ten key factors, "religious‑national identity in fan symbols" (mean uncertainty 4.85), "protest and demanding culture" (4.70), and "ethnicity and local identities" (4.65) ranked highest. The first two were identified as influential variables. Four plausible scenarios emerged: "Idealistic cultural convergence", "Protest arena with identity cover", "Silent identity gap", and "Cultural cohesion collapse". The future of Iranian fan culture depends primarily on the interplay between religious‑national identity and protest culture. Simply suppressing identity symbols or responding to protests with security measures makes the collapse scenario more likely. Establishing fan councils representing diverse identity groups and strengthening official dialogue channels can pave the way toward idealistic convergence.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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